Exploring the History of Decision-Making
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Abstract
This article delves into the intricate realm of human decision-making, examining how individuals navigate the spectrum of choices in their lives. Aristotle's insights are used to analyze the different forms of decision-making, from actions rooted in ignorance to those driven by moral force. The article also addresses the interplay between probability and decision-making, delving into concepts like risk aversion and expected utility. The work of researchers like Daniel Kahneman and Gerd Gigerenzer is examined, showcasing the psychological intricacies involved in decision-making, such as the influence of emotions and cognitive biases, and the concept of antifragility by Nassim Taleb (Kahneman, 2011; Gigerenzer, 2008; Taleb, 2012). The article concludes by discussing the concept of tacit knowledge and its role in decision-making, along with acknowledging the enduring relevance of historical thinkers' insights in shaping our understanding of choice and uncertainty.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61439/VXOL6628
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
References
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Dinu-Biringer, R., Nees, F., Falquez, R., Berger, M., & Barnow, S. (2016). Different roads to the same destination – The impact of impulsivity on decision-making processes under risk within a rewarding context in a healthy male sample. Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging, 12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2016.01.012
Doshi, P., Gmytrasiewicz, P. J., & Durfee, E. H. (2020). Recursively modeling other agents for decision making: A research perspective. Artificial Intelligence, 279, 103202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2019.103202
Evans, N. J. (2021). Think fast! The implications of emphasizing urgency in decision-making. Cognition, 214, 104704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104704
Evans, N. J., Dutilh, G., Wagenmakers, E., & Van Der Maas, H. L. J. (2020). Double responding: A new constraint for models of speeded decision making. Cognitive Psychology, 121, 101292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2020.101292
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Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Khan, A. I., & Al‐Badi, A. H. (2020). Emerging data sources in decision making and AI. Procedia Computer Science, 177, 318–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.10.042
Koechlin, E. (2020). Human Decision-Making beyond the Rational Decision Theory. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 24(1), 4–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.11.001
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Leontiev, D. A. (2017). The Big Russian Encyclopedia. https://old.bigenc.ru/philosophy/text/3167734
Meissner, P., Poensgen, C., & Wulf, T. (2021). How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making. European Management Journal, 39(4), 434–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2020.09.010
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Nobel Prize Outreach. (2002). The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002. NobelPrize.org. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/press-release/
Paradowski, B., & Drążek, Z. (2020). Identification of the decision-making model for selecting an information system. Procedia Computer Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.09.007
Platonov-Polyakov, R. С. (2015). Aristotle’s philosophy: decision-making as a structural element of human activity. Electronic Scientific Edition of e-Almanac Space and Time, 9(2). http://j-spacetime.com/actual%20content/t9v2/t9v2_PDF/2227-9490e-aprovr_e-ast9-2.2015.31.pdf
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Ponomarev, Y. A. (1976). Psihologiya tvorchestva i pedagogika [Psychology of creativity and pedagogy]. Pedagogika.
Serrano, J. I., Iglesias, Á., & Del Castillo, M. D. (2017). Plausibility validation of a decision making model using subjects’ explanations of decisions. Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures, 20, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bica.2017.03.002
Shevlin, B., & Krajbich, I. (2021). Attention as a source of variability in decision-making: Accounting for overall-value effects with diffusion models. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 105, 102594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2021.102594
Sternberg, R. J., Kaufman, J. C., & Pretz, J. E. (2002). The Creativity Conundrum: A Propulsion Model of Kinds of Creative Contributions. Psychology Press.
Streltsova, G. Y. (1979). Blaise Pascal. Mysl.
Swan, J., Newell, S., Scarbrough, H., & Hislop, D. (1999). Knowledge management and innovation: networks and networking. Journal of Knowledge Management, 3(4), 262–275. https://doi.org/10.1108/13673279910304014
Szöllősi, Á., & Newell, B. R. (2020). People as intuitive scientists: Reconsidering statistical explanations of decision making. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 24(12), 1008–1018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.005
Taleb, N. N. (2008). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House Publishing Group.
Tikhomirov, O. K. (1969). Struktura myslitelnoj deyatelnosti cheloveka [Structure of human thinking activity]. Moscow State University.
Tomaszewski, T. (1975). Psychologia. PWN.
Upadhyay, D. (2021). Consideration of future consequences and decision-making patterns as determinants of conflict management styles. IIMB Management Review, 33(1), 5–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2021.03.006
Vincent, V. (2021). Integrating intuition and artificial intelligence in organizational decision-making. Business Horizons, 64(4), 425–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2021.02.008
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1st ed.). Princeton University Press.
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (2nd ed.). Princeton University Press.
Weiss, D. J., & Shanteau, J. (2021). The futility of decision making research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 90, 10–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2021.08.018
Boole, G. (1854). An Investigation of the Laws of Thought: On which are Founded the Mathematical Theories of Logic and Probabilities. Walton and Maberly.
Brown, L., Packard, M. D., & Bylund, P. L. (2018). Judgment, fast and slow: Toward a judgment view of entrepreneurs’ impulsivity. Journal of Business Venturing Insights, 10, e00095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbvi.2018.e00095
Buskens, V. (2015). Rational choice Theory in Sociology. In International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed., pp. 901–906). https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-097086-8.32177-8
Campbell, C., Sands, S., Ferraro, C., Tsao, H., & Mavrommatis, A. (2020). From data to action: How marketers can leverage AI. Business Horizons, 63(2), 227–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2019.12.002
Dinu-Biringer, R., Nees, F., Falquez, R., Berger, M., & Barnow, S. (2016). Different roads to the same destination – The impact of impulsivity on decision-making processes under risk within a rewarding context in a healthy male sample. Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging, 12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pscychresns.2016.01.012
Doshi, P., Gmytrasiewicz, P. J., & Durfee, E. H. (2020). Recursively modeling other agents for decision making: A research perspective. Artificial Intelligence, 279, 103202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2019.103202
Evans, N. J. (2021). Think fast! The implications of emphasizing urgency in decision-making. Cognition, 214, 104704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104704
Evans, N. J., Dutilh, G., Wagenmakers, E., & Van Der Maas, H. L. J. (2020). Double responding: A new constraint for models of speeded decision making. Cognitive Psychology, 121, 101292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2020.101292
Farrokhi, A., Shirazi, F., Hajli, N., & Tajvidi, M. (2020). Using artificial intelligence to detect crisis related to events: Decision making in B2B by artificial intelligence. Industrial Marketing Management, 91, 257–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2020.09.015
Festinger, L. (1957). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press.
Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. (1948). The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk. Journal of Political Economy, 56(4), 279–304.
Gardner, H. (1998). A Multiplicity of Intelligences. Scientific American, 9, 19–23.
Gigerenzer, G. (2008). Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious. Penguin.
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & Group, A. R. (1999). Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Halamish, V., & Liberman, N. (2017). How much information to sample before making a decision? It’s a matter of psychological distance. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 71, 111–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2017.03.004
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Penguin UK.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Bias. Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Khan, A. I., & Al‐Badi, A. H. (2020). Emerging data sources in decision making and AI. Procedia Computer Science, 177, 318–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.10.042
Koechlin, E. (2020). Human Decision-Making beyond the Rational Decision Theory. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 24(1), 4–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.11.001
Kozielecki, J. (1981). Psychological Decision Theory. Springer. (Original work published 1978).
Kuziemski, M., & Misuraca, G. (2020). AI governance in the public sector: Three tales from the frontiers of automated decision-making in democratic settings. Telecommunications Policy, 44(6), 101976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2020.101976
Leontiev, D. A. (2017). The Big Russian Encyclopedia. https://old.bigenc.ru/philosophy/text/3167734
Meissner, P., Poensgen, C., & Wulf, T. (2021). How hot cognition can lead us astray: The effect of anger on strategic decision making. European Management Journal, 39(4), 434–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2020.09.010
Nofsinger, J. R., Patterson, F., & Shank, C. A. (2018). Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress. Economics and Human Biology, 29, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2018.01.003
Nobel Prize Outreach. (2002). The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2002. NobelPrize.org. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2002/press-release/
Paradowski, B., & Drążek, Z. (2020). Identification of the decision-making model for selecting an information system. Procedia Computer Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.09.007
Platonov-Polyakov, R. С. (2015). Aristotle’s philosophy: decision-making as a structural element of human activity. Electronic Scientific Edition of e-Almanac Space and Time, 9(2). http://j-spacetime.com/actual%20content/t9v2/t9v2_PDF/2227-9490e-aprovr_e-ast9-2.2015.31.pdf
Pleasemishandle. (2013, February 21). Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses Antifragility at NYPL.mp4 [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMBclvY_EMA
Ponomarev, Y. A. (1976). Psihologiya tvorchestva i pedagogika [Psychology of creativity and pedagogy]. Pedagogika.
Serrano, J. I., Iglesias, Á., & Del Castillo, M. D. (2017). Plausibility validation of a decision making model using subjects’ explanations of decisions. Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures, 20, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bica.2017.03.002
Shevlin, B., & Krajbich, I. (2021). Attention as a source of variability in decision-making: Accounting for overall-value effects with diffusion models. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 105, 102594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2021.102594
Sternberg, R. J., Kaufman, J. C., & Pretz, J. E. (2002). The Creativity Conundrum: A Propulsion Model of Kinds of Creative Contributions. Psychology Press.
Streltsova, G. Y. (1979). Blaise Pascal. Mysl.
Swan, J., Newell, S., Scarbrough, H., & Hislop, D. (1999). Knowledge management and innovation: networks and networking. Journal of Knowledge Management, 3(4), 262–275. https://doi.org/10.1108/13673279910304014
Szöllősi, Á., & Newell, B. R. (2020). People as intuitive scientists: Reconsidering statistical explanations of decision making. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 24(12), 1008–1018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.005
Taleb, N. N. (2008). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House Publishing Group.
Tikhomirov, O. K. (1969). Struktura myslitelnoj deyatelnosti cheloveka [Structure of human thinking activity]. Moscow State University.
Tomaszewski, T. (1975). Psychologia. PWN.
Upadhyay, D. (2021). Consideration of future consequences and decision-making patterns as determinants of conflict management styles. IIMB Management Review, 33(1), 5–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2021.03.006
Vincent, V. (2021). Integrating intuition and artificial intelligence in organizational decision-making. Business Horizons, 64(4), 425–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2021.02.008
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1st ed.). Princeton University Press.
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (2nd ed.). Princeton University Press.
Weiss, D. J., & Shanteau, J. (2021). The futility of decision making research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 90, 10–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2021.08.018